IEA: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global Oil Supply by 12.8 Million Barrels Per Day
Global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 million barrels per day in April to 95.1 million barrels per day, bringing total losses since February to 12.8 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency.
In its latest assessment, the agency said production from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 14.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.
The IEA noted that increased production and exports from the Atlantic Basin are helping to partially offset the disruption. Assuming oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resume from June, the agency projects global oil supply will decline by an average of 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 102.2 million barrels per day.
The agency also forecast that global oil demand will contract by 420,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2026 to 104 million barrels per day, a figure 1.3 million barrels per day lower than its pre-war forecast.
According to the IEA, the sharpest decline in demand is expected during the second quarter of 2026, when consumption is projected to fall by 2.45 million barrels per day. OECD countries are expected to account for 930,000 barrels per day of the decline, while non-OECD countries will represent around 1.5 million barrels per day.
The agency added that the petrochemical and aviation sectors are currently among the most affected by the market disruption, while rising oil prices, weaker economic conditions and energy-saving measures are expected to increasingly weigh on global fuel consumption.
