The development of an El Niño episode is “increasingly likely” from mid-2026, with impacts on global temperatures and precipitation, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced Friday.
According to the latest update from the UN agency, which noted “a clear shift in the equatorial Pacific,” surface temperatures are rising rapidly, suggesting a likely return of El Niño between May and July 2026.
“Forecasts for the next three months indicate a near-global predominance of above-normal land surface temperatures,” along with regional variations in rainfall patterns, the WMO said, based on projections from multiple climate centers.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year” following the 2025/26 La Niña episode, “there is high confidence that an El Niño event will begin, followed by further intensification in the months ahead,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of climate prediction at the WMO.
“According to the models, it could be a high-intensity episode,” he added, noting that “confidence in the forecasts improves after April.”
El Niño is characterized by a rise in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
The last El Niño episode, in 2023 and 2024, made those years the two hottest ever recorded. The cyclical phenomenon has a cascading effect on the global climate over several months.
The WMO said it will publish its next “El Niño/La Niña Update” at the end of May “to provide more reliable guidance for decision-making during the June–August period and beyond.”
Additionally, the WMO forecasts that land surface temperatures between May and July will be “above normal almost everywhere,” with a particularly strong signal in southern North America, Central America and the Caribbean, as well as in Europe and North Africa.
According to the WMO, “there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events,” though such natural climate phenomena occur within a broader context of human-induced climate change.
