Canada’s Liberal Party will on Sunday announce Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s successor as both party chief and head of the country’s government in the midst of a trade war with the United States that could cripple the Canadian economy.
The next prime minister will have to negotiate with U.S. President Donald Trump as he threatens additional tariffs on Canada and may soon face the opposition Conservatives in a general election.
Trudeau announced in January he would step down after more than nine years in power as his approval rating plummeted, forcing the ruling Liberal Party to run a quick contest to replace him.
Former central banker Mark Carney is the front-runner, with the most endorsements from party members and the most money raised among the four Liberal candidates.
Around two-thirds of Trudeau’s cabinet publicly back Carney, and a Mainstreet poll in late February showed Carney with 43% support among Liberals compared to 31% for his main rival, former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
Some 400,000 Liberal members were eligible to cast their votes for party leader. The party is due to announce the first round of results at about 6:30 p.m. (2230 GMT).
A victory for Carney, 59, would be the first time an outsider with no real political background has become Canadian prime minister.
During the campaign, Carney said he supported dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against the United States and a coordinated strategy to boost investment. He has repeatedly complained that Canada’s growth under Trudeau was not good enough.
The prospect of a fresh start for the Liberal Party under Carney, combined with Trump’s tariffs and his repeated taunts to annex Canada as the 51st U.S. state, led to a remarkable revival of Liberal fortunes.
Besides Trump’s tariff threats, China announced tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products on Saturday, retaliating against the levies Ottawa introduced in October.
The levies, announced by the commerce ministry and scheduled to take effect on March 20, match the 100% and 25% import duties Canada slapped on China-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminium products just over four months ago.
China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, trailing far behind the United States. Canada exported $47 billion worth of goods to the world’s second-largest economy in 2024, according to Chinese customs data.
“I expect Beijing will use the election and change of leader as an opportunity to reset relations as they did with Australia,” said Even Pay, agriculture analyst at Trivium China.
