An analysis by the Institute of International Relations (IMEMO), a prominent Russian foreign policy think tank, highlights that external shocks, particularly tariff hikes promised by Donald Trump, are the main threats to China’s steady economic growth.
China has the potential to achieve 5% growth by 2025, but stable conditions and coordinated economic policies are needed. Tariff hikes could negatively impact Chinese businesses, reducing export revenues, slowing GDP growth, and straining the job market.
Trump’s repeated vows to increase tariffs on Chinese products, including plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on November 25, could exacerbate these risks.
In response, China may implement a new stimulus package involving monetary easing and increased domestic debt. Additionally, Beijing may expand its domestic high-tech production and focus on import substitution to counteract U.S. economic pressures.
The research concludes that U.S. efforts to isolate China economically are unlikely to force Beijing into making concessions or becoming more compliant.
