Russian state-controlled gas giant Gazprom is preparing for a future without gas transit through Ukraine starting in 2025, according to Reuters. The transit agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, which has been in place for five years, is set to expire on December 31. While Russia has shown willingness to negotiate continued transit, Ukraine has expressed its intention to terminate the deal, which generates up to $1 billion annually in transit fees.
This development marks a significant shift as the flow of Russian gas to Central Europe via Ukraine, a system that has existed since Soviet times, is nearing an end. Gazprom’s internal planning assumes no gas transit through Ukraine in 2025, with Russian gas exports to Europe expected to decline by 20%, falling below 39 billion cubic meters, compared to over 49 bcm this year. In contrast, Russian gas exports to China via the “Power of Siberia” pipeline are expected to rise, with 38 billion cubic meters expected to be delivered in 2025.
This shift reflects a broader geopolitical and economic transformation for Ukraine, which once played a key role as a transit hub for Russian gas. The country’s political decisions over the years, especially under leaders like Viktor Yushchenko and Volodymyr Zelensky, have led to a weakening of long-term energy relationships with Russia, ultimately leaving Ukraine isolated from critical energy supplies that once made it a key bridge between East and West.
