The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Tuesday raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in its previous estimate from August.
The outlook for 2026 was revised down to 0.5% from 1.8%, according to the WTO’s latest World Trade Outlook and Statistics report, which projects global GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.
The WTO said merchandise trade volumes rose 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by advance imports in North America ahead of expected U.S. tariff hikes, disinflation, supportive fiscal policies, strong growth in emerging markets, and a surge in AI-related goods trade.
Trade among developing economies also posted a notable rise, with South-South trade value up 8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, outpacing the 6% growth in overall global trade value.
