Oil Prices Rebound on Modest OPEC+ Output Hike and Threat of New Russia Sanctions
Oil prices rose by more than $1 on Monday, recovering part of last week’s losses, as traders weighed the modest OPEC+ production increase alongside the prospect of new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude after a large overnight strike on Ukraine. Brent crude climbed $1.24, or 1.9%, to $66.74 a barrel by 0640 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.17, or 1.9%, to $63.04. Both benchmarks had fallen more than 2% on Friday, ending the week with losses of over 3% due to weaker U.S. jobs data dimming demand expectations.
OPEC+, comprising OPEC members along with Russia and other allies, confirmed plans on Sunday to increase oil output in October, though by a modest 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to larger hikes in recent months.
Analysts said the limited increase was already factored into markets, while expectations of tighter supply due to possible U.S. sanctions on Russian oil buyers provided further support. President Donald Trump signaled he is moving toward a “second phase” of sanctions on Russia, his clearest indication yet of escalating measures against Moscow over the Ukraine war.
Meanwhile, Russia carried out its largest airstrike of the conflict, killing at least four people and setting central government buildings ablaze in Kyiv. The escalation, coupled with ongoing uncertainty about Russian oil flows, reinforced supply concerns.
Analysts also noted that European leaders are due to meet Trump in Washington this week to discuss ways to resolve the war. Despite the short-term rebound, Goldman Sachs forecast over the weekend that oil markets will see a slightly larger surplus in 2026 as supply growth in the Americas outweighs reduced Russian output and stronger demand, keeping its Brent and WTI forecasts unchanged for 2025.
