A study led by the World Health Organization’s cancer agency, the IARC, published on Thursday, suggests that banning tobacco sales to individuals born between 2006 and 2010 could potentially prevent nearly 1.2 million lung cancer deaths by the end of the century.
Smoking is the primary risk factor for lung cancer, which remains the most prevalent and deadliest form of cancer globally. If current trends continue, it is projected that over 2.95 million lung cancer fatalities could occur among those born from early 2006 to late 2010—a demographic exceeding 650 million people—according to the study published in The Lancet Public Health.
However, if tobacco sales were prohibited for this generation, approximately 1.2 million of these deaths could be averted by 2095, as indicated by this modeling work, one of the first to evaluate the impact of a “tobacco-free generation.”
The study indicates that a larger proportion of lung cancer deaths would likely be preventable among men (45.8%) compared to women (30.9%). This analysis encompasses 185 countries and relies on mortality and cancer incidence data from all five continents. Researchers suggest this trend is “probably linked to the higher prevalence and earlier onset of smoking among men.” The research team includes affiliates from universities in Santiago de Compostela (Spain), Pretoria (South Africa), Otago (New Zealand), Ouro Preto (Brazil), the American Cancer Society, and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
In certain regions such as North America, parts of Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, the percentage of avoidable deaths due to a tobacco-free generation is expected to be higher among women than men. Western European women (77.7%) and men from Central and Eastern Europe (74.3%) exhibit the highest regional percentages of preventable deaths.
Initiatives aimed at creating a “tobacco-free generation” have been introduced in various countries, including New Zealand, as well as in several regions of Australia and the United States. New Zealand was a pioneer in this effort by enacting a ban on cigarette sales to anyone born after 2008 in 2022; however, the newly elected conservative government announced the cessation of these measures at the end of 2023.
