Japanese exports experienced a stronger-than-anticipated surge in October, according to official data released on Wednesday. This uptick suggests a potential positive contribution from foreign trade to the GDP of the world’s third-largest economy in the final quarter.
Exports increased by 3.1% in October, surpassing economists’ forecasts of a modest 1% rise, following a decline the previous month—the first drop in nearly a year.
Notably, the semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector saw an impressive increase of 42.6%, particularly in shipments to China, which experienced an overall rise of 1.5% year-on-year.
In contrast, exports to the United States declined by 6.2%, while those to Western Europe fell by 7.2%.
“Exports continue to face challenges due to weak global demand, heightened foreign competition, and difficulties within domestic automotive production,” noted Stefan Angrick in a report from Moody’s Analytics.
“Simultaneously, import prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, keeping the value of imports high,” he added.
According to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, imports rose slightly by 0.4% last month, resulting in a trade deficit of 461.2 billion yen (€2.8 billion).
The figures “raise hopes for a recovery in external demand during the October-December quarter,” commented Hiroshi Miyazaki from the Itochu Research Institute, as cited by Bloomberg.
However, Angrick cautioned that “while exports are expected to eventually recover, supported by the weak yen, global political uncertainty poses risks to medium-term prospects,” referencing potential US-China trade tensions with Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
