JAKARTA – Indonesia’s trade surplus reached a three-month high in August, surpassing expectations, as exports grew significantly faster than anticipated, according to official data released on Tuesday. The trade surplus for August stood at $2.89 billion, approximately $18.9 billion, exceeding the $1.96 billion forecasted by a Reuters poll and marking the highest surplus since May. This positive data is among the key economic indicators that the central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), will review during its two-day policy meeting starting today. Economists had generally expected BI to keep interest rates unchanged.
Exports in August increased by 7.13% year-on-year to $23.56 billion, outpacing the median forecast of a 3.83% annual rise. This was the fastest growth in exports since January 2023, according to LSEG data. Conversely, imports were valued at $20.67 billion, a 9.46% increase from the previous year, which was higher than the anticipated 8.15% rise. This uptick in imports, along with rising exports, reflects a recovery in trade volumes following a significant decline in export values after the peak of the post-pandemic commodity price boom.
Despite the stronger-than-expected trade figures, some economists anticipate that BI will maintain its benchmark rate at 6.25%. Maybank Indonesia economist Myrdal Gunarto noted that while the widening surplus might give BI more confidence, the central bank’s previous emphasis on macroeconomic stability and the potential influence of the Federal Reserve’s decisions on U.S. rates could lead to a decision to hold rates steady. Oil and gas shipments saw a decline, but this was balanced by an 8.7% increase in manufactured goods exports and a 9.7% rise in coal shipments, which reached $2.47 billion. Imports of capital goods and raw materials also increased by more than 11%.
