Global oil demand is projected to rise by just over 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, up from 830,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in 2024, reaching a total of 103.9 mb/d. Asia, led by China, will account for nearly 60% of this growth, with China’s petrochemical feedstocks driving the increase. However, an uncertain macroeconomic environment has led to lower-than-expected demand data, prompting slight downward revisions for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth now estimated at 1.2 mb/d.
Global oil supply increased by 240 kb/d in February, reaching 103.3 mb/d, mainly driven by OPEC+ nations. Kazakhstan reached a record high as production ramped up at the Tengiz field, while Iran and Venezuela boosted exports ahead of potential sanctions. Non-OPEC+ production is expected to grow by 1.5 mb/d in 2025, led by the Americas. Meanwhile, OPEC+ output could remain steady if voluntary production cuts continue beyond April, following a 770 kb/d decline in 2024.
Refinery activity saw a drop in global crude runs by 570 kb/d month-on-month in February, averaging 82.8 mb/d due to planned and unplanned outages. Throughput is expected to reach 83.3 mb/d in 2025, reflecting a 570 kb/d annual increase, with strong non-OECD growth offsetting lower OECD activity. Oil prices fell by approximately $7 per barrel in February and early March, hitting near three-year lows of around $70 per barrel, as trade tensions and OPEC+ plans to ease production cuts raised expectations of a well-supplied market in 2025.
