France risks losing its third prime minister in 12 months on Monday, with incumbent François Bayrou facing a parliamentary confidence vote that he called but is widely expected to lose, tipping the country further into political uncertainty.
Appointed by President Emmanuel Macron just under nine months ago, the 74-year-old prime minister is gambling that the vote will unite lawmakers in the sharply divided National Assembly behind proposed public spending cuts that Bayrou argues are needed to rein in France’s spiraling state deficit and debts.
But opposition lawmakers are vowing to instead use the opportunity to topple Bayrou and his minority government, an upheaval that would force Macron to begin what could be another arduous hunt for a replacement.
Opposition leaders across the political spectrum made clear they would vote to oust Bayrou.
“The government will fall,” said Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leading figure of the France Unbowed (LFI) party, echoing similar comments from others on the left and right.
The turmoil also jeopardizes France’s ability to control its debt, as the risk of further credit downgrades looms amid widening bond spreads—a key indicator of the risk premium investors require to hold French debt.
This comes as France faces acute pressure to repair its finances, with last year’s deficit nearly double the EU’s 3% limit of economic output and public debt at 113.9% of GDP.
On a broader scale, the government’s collapse looks set to deepen France’s paralysis at a critical time for Europe, which is seeking unity amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and trade tensions with the United States.
