OPEC continues to project an increase in oil demand for 2025 and 2026, primarily driven by transportation needs and rising air traffic, according to its latest monthly report released on Wednesday, which maintains the previous month’s estimates.
Global consumption is expected to reach 105.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, up from 103.75 mb/d in 2024, as indicated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which revises its forecasts monthly based on prevailing market conditions.
Demand is anticipated to grow steadily throughout 2025, with OPEC forecasting a consumption rate of 104.2 mb/d in the first quarter of that year. For 2026, the organization predicts global consumption will rise to 106.6 mb/d.
From a sectoral viewpoint, demand growth will be supported primarily by the transportation sector, where “strong demand” for air travel is expected alongside robust growth in road transportation, OPEC notes.
Furthermore, demand will also be bolstered by the “industrial, agricultural, and construction sectors,” the organization adds.
The increase in demand is largely attributed to non-OECD countries, where consumption is projected to rise by 1.3 mb/d, notably driven by China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America.
In contrast, OECD countries are expected to contribute only a modest increase of 0.1 mb/d to this overall demand rise.
Among these nations, the United States is anticipated to experience “robust economic dynamics” observed in the last quarter of 2024, which are expected to “continue into 2025.” This will allow demand to recover slightly, with an anticipated increase of 35,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025.
