EIA Revises 2025 Oil Price Forecast Amid Lower Global Inventories and OPEC+ Cuts
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2025 crude oil price forecast due to lower global oil inventories during the year’s first quarter. The upward revision is driven by the OPEC+ group’s extended production cuts, which are projected to result in daily global oil inventory withdrawals averaging 500,000 barrels in early 2025, according to the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
The EIA anticipates that declining inventories will push crude oil prices to an average of $76 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a $2 increase from December 2024 levels. However, the agency expects prices to decline from mid-2025 through the end of 2026 as global oil production growth outpaces demand. Average Brent prices are forecasted at $74.31 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading at $70.31 per barrel in 2025, slightly up from previous projections of $73.58 and $69.12, respectively.
In 2024, Brent crude averaged $80.56 per barrel, while WTI stood at $76.60. The EIA highlighted potential risks to these projections, including OPEC+ producers’ adherence to production cuts and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could affect market dynamics.
US and Global Production Trends
The EIA has also revised its US crude oil production forecast, predicting an average of 13.55 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from 13.21 million bpd in 2024 and exceeding last month’s estimate by 30,000 bpd. Global production is expected to reach 104.36 million bpd by the end of 2025, slightly surpassing the anticipated global oil demand of 104.1 million bpd.
