Michel Barnier Faces No-Confidence Vote as Social Security Bill Sparks Political Crisis
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is set to face a political showdown as his government presents the controversial social security financing plan for the 2025 budget. With opposition parties up in arms, Barnier’s administration could be at risk of a no-confidence vote that might force him to step down. The Prime Minister, who heads a minority government formed in September after an inconclusive general election, is under immense pressure, with the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, playing a pivotal role in any potential vote of no confidence.
In an effort to placate the RN, Barnier has scrapped plans for a more stringent prescription drug reimbursement policy, a concession aimed at preventing further opposition to the bill. Despite this, the RN remains steadfast in its opposition to parts of the 2025 budget, including the social security plan. Should Barnier fail to secure a parliamentary majority, he may resort to executive powers under article 49.3 of the French constitution to pass the measures without a vote, risking an immediate no-confidence motion.
Le Pen, who has been critical of the government’s stance on the social security budget, has demanded Barnier engage in further negotiations, accusing the Prime Minister of being closed-minded and partisan. The RN, the largest single party in the 577-seat National Assembly, has already signaled its intention to trigger a censure motion, unless last-minute concessions are made. However, Barnier’s efforts to find common ground with the opposition have so far proven unsuccessful, and a no-confidence vote could occur as early as Wednesday.
The government’s fall would have significant economic implications, with experts warning that political instability could lead to a rise in France’s debt risk premium. Barnier’s fiscal plan aims to reduce the public-sector deficit to five percent of GDP in 2025, but failure to navigate the political crisis could undermine France’s financial standing.
