The adoption of the latest iterations of artificial intelligence by financial markets can improve risk management and deepen liquidity; but it could also make markets opaque, harder to monitor, and more vulnerable to cyber-attacks and manipulation risks.
The new Global Financial Stability Report looks at new market data to understand where this technology might be taking us. IMF staff conducted extensive outreach across various stakeholders—from investors to technology providers to market regulators—to show how financial institutions are harnessing advances in AI for capital market activities, and the potential impact of its adoption.
Hedge funds, investment banks, and others have been using quantitative trading strategies for decades. Automated trading algorithms have helped markets move faster and digest large trades more efficiently in major asset classes such as US equities. But they have also contributed to “flash crash” events when market prices have swung wildly in very short periods of time—such as in May 2010 when US stock prices collapsed only to rebound minutes later—and there are fears they could destabilize markets in times of severe stress and uncertainty.
Artificial intelligence, through its ability to almost instantly process large amounts of data and even text for use by traders, is poised to take these kinds of changes to another level. However, while generative AI and other recent breakthroughs are attracting attention in both the popular press and in financial markets, today they are used in only limited ways by actual investors. So, if we are only at the beginning of an AI-led transformation, where might we be headed?
Patent filings are a good way to understand this, given what is often a long lead time between filings and actual production-ready technology. Since large language models, or LLMs, started to appear in 2017, the share of AI content in patent applications related to algorithmic trading has risen from 19 percent in 2017 to over 50 percent each year since 2020, suggesting a wave of innovation is coming in this area.
